Having issued a Gas Deficit Warning (GDW) this morning due to supply problems, the industry has responded and as forecast demand has been rising through the day from an initial 2395 million cubic metres (mcm) to 410 mcm, supplies have also been increasing. Thanks largely to gas via interconnectors with Belgium (BBL) and Holland (Zeebrugge Interconnector), supplies are now at 403 mcm, from a low of 346 this morning.
Whilst supplies to all but the very largest end-users were never under threat, any risk that some, including larger supplies at TEC member sites, would be called upon to cease taking gas have all but disappeared. Only when actual demand is calculated will we see the impact of those larger supplies who have reduced offtake in response to the GDW, including chemical companies and manufacturers. Eventual demand may well be below the 410 mcm forecast, meaning that responses have been sufficient.
We would continue to assure TEC members that gas supplies, whilst stretched, are not yet at critical levels. The short term outlook is for demand to fall as temperatures rise and for supplies to remain comfortable.
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