At 05.48, 1st March National Grid has issued a Gas Deficit Warning (GDW). A GDW is issued if a significant supply or demand event occurs, which represents a material risk to the physical end-of-day balance. Due to the adverse weather conditions this has resulted in the available supply for the UK being around 40 million cubic meters (mcm) short of demand for the day. However this is not a supply emergency.
Total demand for today, including from gas fired power stations, is forecast at 402 mcm, which is very high when compared to expected seasonal normal demand of 301 mcm. However we are still well short of the record demand level of 440 mcm which occurred in January 2010, and further short of the 455 mcm level at which National Grid would call a gas balancing alert and a national emergency.
National Grid continue to provide updates which can be found here; http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/PrevailingView/Index. The key parts to check are the ANS messages at the bottom of the page and to compare demand with physical flows in the top left hand section headed “Forecast”.
For an update on this story please click here .
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